By 2060, Japan may achieve energy independence with renewables, CEO claims

Japan's Path to Energy Independence by 2060

Japan, known for its significant dependence on imported coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), is on course to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2060. This ambitious vision is projected to be realized through extensive adoption of renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind power, complemented by advanced storage technologies.

Current Energy Import Dependence

Presently, Japan relies heavily on energy imports, sourcing most of its requirements from the Middle East, Australia, and the United States. The Japanese government has set a strategic goal to reduce the contribution of LNG and coal in its power generation mix to below 40% by 2030, down from over 60% currently. However, analysts caution that Japan's progress in this direction is slower than necessary.

Potential for Renewable Energy

Jarand Rystad, CEO of the Rystad Energy consultancy, challenges the prevailing mindset in Japan that energy must be imported due to domestic scarcity. He argues that advancements in renewable energy technologies render this belief obsolete. Rystad envisions a future where Japan's energy composition includes 45% solar power, 30% wind generation (primarily from offshore installations), 5% hydropower, 5% biomass and e-fuel, with nuclear power contributing the remaining 15% by 2060.

Solar and Wind Power Expansion

To reach this goal, Japan merely needs to maintain the pace of solar installations from the pre-2020 era, when the country added 10 to 12 gigawatts annually at its peak. Last year, Japan managed to install approximately 4 gigawatts of new solar capacity, bringing its total solar capacity to 87 gigawatts—making it the third largest in the world, behind China and the United States.

Innovative Solutions for Solar Expansion

Integrating solar panels with agricultural activities, where panels provide shade that benefits certain crops, is among the innovative strategies proposed to expand solar power use. Additionally, installing solar panels on rooftops of roads offers another viable solution.

Comprehensive Renewable Energy Mix

According to Rystad, a diverse renewable energy mix involving both onshore and offshore wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass—backed by robust storage solutions such as batteries and pumped hydro—could propel Japan toward complete energy independence within the next four decades.

The prospect of Japan attaining energy independence by 2060 is not just an environmental imperative but also a strategic economic milestone, potentially reshaping its energy landscape significantly.